Thursday, August 16, 2007

Fantasy Football Draft Time - Do the Opposite

The mantra of Fantasy Football over the years has been RB-RB in the first 2 rounds of your draft. Well this year, unless you hold a top 3 or 4 pick, stop doing that. Stop being a clone. Zig when others are zagging. Do the Opposite!!

LT and S-Jax are the top 2 Rbs and top 2 players in all of Fantasy Football. After that, things are up in the air for the other RBs mentioned as "elite"

LJ - Contract, no other offensive threat, inferior o-line ravaged by injuries
Alexander - that majic age of 30 is upon him, the foot injury, and he lost his top o-line teammate
Gore - Broke his hand (Clinton Portis of this year)

So what if you grab one of those guys and what I mentioned above happens?

I hold that after LT, and S-Jax the next 4 RBs in no particluar order are:

Joe Addai
Rudi Johnson
Frank Gore
Willie Parker

But who is better than other? Will Rudi finally break down? Can Addai handle all the workload himself? Will the broken hand really affect Gore? Will other teams put 8 guys in the box and stop Willie Parker every game?

And then there is Peyton Manning. Year in and year out he performs. He still has Marvin and Reggie. A top o-line and you can chalk in a passing TD or 2 every week.

So you take Peyton in the 1st round. Rounds 2 and 3? Go elite WR.

Torry Holt
Marvin Harrison
Terrell Ownes
Chad Johnson
Steve Smith
Marques Colston
Roy Williams
TJ Whosyourdaddy
Reggie Wayne
Javon Walker
Larry Fitzgerald
Anquan Boldin
even Antonio Gates

could and will all be available to you in rounds 2 and 3.

So you start with this

QB - Peyton
WR - Holt
WR - Boldin

BUT I HAVE NO RB!!!

So what! Big Deal!. You clean up everyone's "sleeper" rbs in rounds 4 - 8. Or, with so many Running Back by Committees (RBBC) nowadays you take the guy who is still left behind. Consider that the final 4 of last year in the NFL all employed the RBBC mode.

Indy - Addai and Rhodes
Bears - T. Jones and Ced Benson
Patriots - Dillon and Maroney
Saints - Reggie Bush and Deuce

All were serviceable and performed well enough to play on their own.

So, all you need is one of these guys to strike it big and you're already cleaning up at QB and both WR spots and now one of your running backs hits it big and you got 4 guys ROLLING every week.

Who'd stop you.

Think sleeper backs do not strike it big?

Consider this.

Maurice Jones Drew
Frank Gore
Joe Addai
Laurence Maroney
Marion Barber
Ladell Betts

They were all "sleeper" running backs last year (taken after the 3rd rounds or not drafted at all last year for most leagues) who struck it HUGE and became #1 backs.


Meanwhile

Clinton Portis
Lamont Jordan
Shaun Alexander
Edgerrin James
Warrick Dunn

were all backs that "had" to be taken in the first couple rounds last year that bombed out...BIG TIME.

So in rounds 4 - 8 you grab all the other running backs. And there are a laundry list of guys you can grab here:

Marshawn Lynch
Duece McAllister
Adrian Peterson
Thomas Jones
Brandon Jacobs
Deangleo Williams
Jerious Norwood
Julius Jones
Cadillac Williams

You'd probably be able to get any of these guys you want in the middle rounds and if one guy hits it big....I'll see you in December with the championship trophy, just as I have doen myself.

And, I can tell you from experience, you'll get mocked for taking the QB first and nearly laughed out of the draft if you go WR in the 1st round, and then laughed at again for the WR or QB in round 2, but then in round 3 when you take another WR and people start crapping the bed because they realize you cornered the market, they'll start reaching for their QBs and WRs and sometimes a real good RB falls to you in the 4th round.

2 years ago (2005) I got Rudi in the 4th round, last year (2006) I got Brian Westbrook in the 4th round.

This was after drafting Torry Holt and Steve Smith with my first 2 picks in 2005 and Marvin Harrison and Holt again with my first 2 picks last year (I held 9th pick in 2005 and 11th pick last year). In 2005 I grabbed Palmer in round 3 and last year Bulger in round 3. Manning was gone before I could get him every year...so I am hoping with the 5th pick this year I get him and continue by Do the Opposite strategy.

I'm telling you, Do the Opposite works. You just need the "sac" to do it.

DO THE OPPOSITE, I've employed it for 4 years now and never once regretted it.

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